Causal Lineage

Trace why this outcome happened, not just that it happened.

Causal lineage is what turns CTK Replay from a timeline viewer into a reasoning product. Operators should be able to follow the path from observed change to contradiction pressure, confidence shift, and final decision without inventing that narrative themselves.

Why It Matters

Explains why two nearby signals do not mean the same thing
Keeps source provenance visible through the chain
Separates aligned evidence from contested evidence
Links final truth back to the exact causal path that produced it

Lineage Model

Replay keeps lineage explicit through every shift.

Subject Scope

Replay anchors the chain to a service, relationship, or operational scope rather than treating every signal as unrelated.

Linked Evidence

Evidence records are attached to chain and subject identifiers so support and contest can be read in one place.

Contradiction Edges

Contradictions are not hidden. They remain explicit lineage events that reshape trust and slow unsafe conclusions.

Outcome Trace

The operator can see which causal path led to downgrade, block, acceptance, or unresolved truth.