Confidence Evolution

Replay shows how certainty moved, not just where it landed.

Confidence is a moving signal inside CTK Replay. It changes as evidence ages, contradictions appear, or stronger intelligence arrives. Replay makes those shifts explicit so operators can decide whether the chain is trustworthy enough to act on.

Open Decision Outcomes Open Reconstruction

Fidelity Tiers

Full Fidelity

Enough operational evidence exists to reconstruct replay chains with confidence.

Limited Fidelity

Signals exist, but the story is still too shallow for a complete reconstruction.

Unsupported

Replayable intelligence is not yet rich enough to defend a trustworthy operational story.

What Changes Confidence

Confidence is recalculated against operational reality.

Evidence Strength

High-confidence evidence can reinforce a chain; weak or generic evidence keeps the story shallow.

Freshness

A stable topology with stale evidence still loses trust. Replay makes freshness pressure visible instead of hiding it.

Contradictions

When runtime behavior disagrees with configuration or prior understanding, confidence drops by design.

Fidelity Tier

Replay distinguishes full-fidelity windows from limited-fidelity windows so confidence is never overstated.